Advanced Research Workshop

" Developing Conceptual and Policy Considerations on National and Regional Security Strategies in Southeast Europe Based on a Scenario "

19-21 September, Skopje, Republic of Macedonia

In the period between 19-22 September in h. Arka in Skopje the Advanced Research Workshop (ARW) on “Developing Conceptual and Policy Considerations on National and Regional Security Strategies in Southeast Europe Based on Scenarios” was held, organized by the OHRID Institute for Economic Strategies and International Affairs in cooperation with the Atlantic Club of Bulgaria. This Conference is sponsored by NATO Program Security through Science.

The Advanced Research Workshop Developing Conceptual and Policy Considerations on National and Regional Security Strategies in South-Eastern Europe based on a Scenario is sponsored by the NATO Science for Peace and Security Programme. The aim of the Science for Peace and Security Programme is to contribute to security, stability and solidarity among nations, by applying the best technical expertise to problem solving. Collaboration, networking and capacity-building are means used to accomplish this end. A further aim is to facilitate continued democratic growth and support economic development in NATO's Partner countries.
Civil science has proved to be a highly effective vehicle for international dialogue, due to its universality and dependence upon international networks. The talent garnered in these scientific networks can be applied to emerging threats faced by the Alliance. Science is both a means of finding answers to critical questions and a way of connecting nations.

The Security Science Forum plays a horizon-scanning role in identifying emerging security-related science issues relevant to NATO missions and goals, and advises the SPS Committee accordingly for future activities. The SPS Committee in turn advises the Council and other NATO bodies as appropriate.
The Committee provides a unique forum for the sharing of knowledge and experience on technical, scientific and policy aspects of social and environmental matters in both the civilian and military sectors among NATO and EAPC Partner countries. It is focused on the security, ecologic sustainability and the other priorities of the Partner countries.

For that purpose is the partnership between the OHRID Institute, Macedonia as an organization of a Partner country and the Atlantic Club of Bulgaria as an organization of NATO member country.The OHRID Institute in its mission has outlined that it supports Macedonia on the way towards the EU integration and has experience in publications and researches in organizing conferences on this subject matter, for instance the last conference NATO- Bucharest and Beyond, organized in partnership with the Parliament of Republic of Macedonia.

The Atlantic Club of Bulgaria is the first non-governmental organization created founded before the downfall of the Warsaw pact on the territory of a country non –member of NATO as well as active participant in the international plan for support of the Euro Atlantic politically secured structure and impetus of the partner countries.

We as organizers of the workshop consider that the social sciences have shown to be as very efficient force of the international dialogue, mainly due to their universality and dependency of the international networks. The significance which is integral part of these scientific networks can be applied to the growing threats which the Alliance is confronting with.The workshop and later the publication itself will provide one forum for sharing knowledge and experience of technical, scientific and political aspect for the social and economic issues of the civic and military sector at NATO and the Partner countries in the region of South-East Europe.

This Advanced Research Workshop (ARW) generated ideas about the way the comprehensive security situation in South-Eastern Europe (SEE) may evolve over the next decade. As well as an answer was given to the set of following questions:

• How will the region of South-eastern Europe look like from political, economic and security point of view after the new status of EU and NATO integrated countries begun to produce political, psychological and physical outcomes? 
• What kind of shared threat perception will have the societies, political, and military elites of the regional countries in the perspective of next ten years? How the “national issues” of every single regional country will evolve and how these reflect their security demands?
• How, under the impact of such changes, might the national and regional security strategies and policies be affected? What shift in national and regional security paradigm realistically could be expected? What could be seen like a common national security matrix for the countries from the region?
• How will the changes in the security situation affect NATO in terms of allied strategy and engagement?

The ARW was focused on the plausible characteristics of the future comprehensive security environment in SEE. The subject matter experts on economy, political science, sociology, security, ecology and defense interpreted alternative developments of the entire factors and conditions that determine the “Balkans security conundrum”. Using specialized software the ARW generated plausible scenarios for the region for the next 10 years. We started with analyzing what is happening on the Balkans and tried to answer what we can expect to happen in broader security aspect. The initial presumption is that the entire dominant security paradigms are too deeply rooted in the past and without appropriate and timely adjustment could become a serious obstacle to the overall democratic development of societies. Within the scenario space participants identified those basic components of a new security paradigm and related policy recommendations that could drive the political behavior of regional governments and societies.

The logic of the further stabilization of the South-Eastern Europe requires not only a complex decision for achieving lasting peace and stability in the region but also deep transformations in the regional societies aimed to make their further development based on instant democratic values and norms. It is mutually recognized that the growing gap between the public and political elite and the growing mistrust in the democratic institutions is the very essence of the state of politics in the Balkans today. This transformation includes principle abolishment of reasons for violent conflicts, combating poverty of the people through the entire region and a clear European and Euro-Atlantic perspective. Instead of myths and stereotypes, recently used to explain the situation in SEE, an intensive, long-lasting and realistic vision and policy for co-operation and collaboration between the countries from the region are needed. The way out of the long lasting regional crisis is not only through decisive NATO and EU engagement and commitment but through essential political, military and economic regional solidarity and co-operation. If the Balkan statesmen have took this seriously the countries could move faster towards stability and prosperity instead of staying for too long time nowhere between the European dream and local nationalisms, corrupted administrations, technological backwardness and social loosed faith.

Most of the regional countries are still running around the old concept of national security that is focused on and aimed to guarantee the attributes of the state only. These concepts are based on well deeply rooted in the history mutual suspicions and overemphasized on the sovereignty. As a rule the local societies give highest trust ratings to nationalistic politicians, the church and army or to another symbol of the ‘strong hand’. While it is a well-documented fact that most of the criminal lords are among the most devoted political donors and the local mafias are ethnically based networks. This combination of ethnicity and criminality, social dissatisfaction and nationalist populism is a critical element in the entire security situation. It is very essential NATO and the EU to bring more security to the region by policing these countries and helping the general democratic process, but without “bottom-up” developments this could be long and costly mission.

By using scenario methodology, the participants developed conceptual considerations and policy recommendations as a platform for modernization of national and circum regional security strategies of the countries from South-Eastern Europe. Dialogue is needed to change threat assessments. Assessments are seen here as dynamic and changing perceptions, which include goals, threats, fears, identities and other elements of perceived reality. A threat assessment can have far-reaching effects and trump materialistic power concerns; in the long term paradigms can change. The feedback created by the assessment process serves as a direct foundation for further development.

The ARW is a significant contribution to the much needed basic re-thinking of the analytical framework for evaluating the chances and risks for the democratic, secure and prosperous future of the Balkans and the introduction of scenario method as a modern and effective decision-supporting tool as well. ARW is considered as continuation of the NATO sponsored ‘A Scenario-Planning Exercise on the Evolution of the Threat Spectrum and the Implications for Security Sector Governance in the Euro-Atlantic Area’ and the Swiss CASIN program (known as The Balkan Daily) and DCAF ‘Young Faces Network’ meeting on ‘Assessing Regional Interests and Security Threats".The participants of the Conference made significant contribution for the conception and execution of the scenarios.

The OHRID Institute for Economic Strategies and International Affairs is non-profit, non-partisan think – tank, independent of any business or governmental groups, which intends to maintain good relations with policymakers of varied ideological leanings. The OHRID Institute is center for studies, research, establishment and dissemination in the public of issues related to the governance, policy, economy, society and the culture with one and unique goal – better future for the citizens of the Republic of Macedonia.  The Mission of OHRID Institute is to provide the Macedonian public and political institutions with alternative perspectives on economic and foreign policy issues. The work of the OHRID Institute is based on the universal ideals of democracy, individual responsibility, free markets and entrepreneurship. The OHRID Institute reaches out to the public and the media to ensure that the ideas are heard and in the same time work with policymakers to ensure that they are implemented. What the OHRID Institute strives for, is nurturing the traditional values of the Macedonian society, working and acting towards formation of one free democratic place of living. To do this, the OHRID Institute believes that there is a strong need for effective local institutions, dedicated to research, education, and advocacy that will improve the climate of ideas over time, and will strengthen the democratic society.